LAFAYETTE, Ga. -- As spring begins, in general so does the house-hunting season.

But do the circumstances in the national housing market reflect the situation in Walker County?

The National Association of Realtors reports that new home sales in the U.S. saw in January their largest drop since 1990 — a decline of 16.6 percent, or 186,000 homes, from the previous month. That’s a rather large dip even in the generally slower winter sales season.

The longer term presents an even graver picture.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced this week that February’s new home construction numbers are down 28.5 percent from a year ago, a figure that represents 607,000 fewer houses started.

But the local consensus is that even though there has been a slowdown in the national market, area home sales are basically on par.

Lots of subdivisions in the works in Walker

Walker County currently has 56 subdivision projects permitted by the county with either lots for sale, homes under construction or in planning to be built soon.

“There has been a slight drop in our spec home permits, but nothing drastic,” said Kathy Ward, Walker County planning director, adding that the drop is the first in over a year. “Appli-cations for custom home permits have remained steady.”

“Spec” houses are built according to a common pre-determined plan before they are sold — builders “speculate” on the profit they can make, whereas custom homes are built for a specific buyer at an agreed upon price.

According to the Chattanooga Association of Realtors, the nine-year period from 1996 to 2005 saw the median house price in the area rise 47 percent, or 5.2 percent each year.

“That’s steady, healthy growth,” said Jack Webb, one of the developers of the huge Fieldstone Farms subdivision in Rock Spring.

Webb points out that the Tennessee Valley real estate market has remained calm overall, unlike booming coastal areas that have suffered from an abundance of speculators and “house flippers” trying to turn a quick buck.

“I heard of situations in Miami, West Palm Beach and Orlando where developments of 300 to 400 units would have more than half the lots sold before they even broke ground,” he said. “That’s just unhealthy.”

Walker County on the other hand has a seeming abundance of unsold lots and spec homes, with new subdivisions cropping up regularly.

In a ‘breather’ period?

Legacy Cove, a new development recently begun just north of Wal-Mart in LaFayette, is slated for 100 single-family homes and 70 town homes.

While the LaFayette City Council recently annexed the new subdivision into the city limits, council member Andy Arnold expressed concern over the current demand for that many homes.

“Of course I’m not a developer, but from an investment point of view I don’t see this as the place, right now, to make money because of the homes we already have on the market,” Arnold said.

He said that at planning meetings the developer of Legacy Cove expressed confidence that his price point — in the lower $100,000s — was attractive enough to bring new homebuyers to LaFayette.

“I hope he’s right,” Arnold said.

Webb says he thinks it’s simply that there are pockets of development that are slower than others. “Despite the national downturn, in 2006 we still had the third best year ever for real estate sales in this area.”

The 2006 downturn is normal course, Webb says. “What goes up has to level off or even come down somewhat at some point. I think we’re in a one to two-year minor ‘breather’ in the local market.”

Planning director Ward said she thinks the local market will remain stable largely because of an influx of retirees from the north looking for milder weather, and from the Gulf Coast, shell-shocked by devastating hurricanes.

“Walker County is beautiful, it’s green, it’s affordable,” she said, adding that younger families are also attracted by the good school system.

Walker County Commissioner Bebe Heiskell frequently deals with the push and pull that residential growth causes by generally bringing in less tax revenue than is required for schools, roads, sewers and other infrastructure and services.

“I’m looking toward the peak of commercial and industrial growth on the U.S. 27 corridor, which is years away,” she said. “But we have to have rooftops to attract that growth, and the goal is for our residential growth to not outpace that.”